The Next First-Time Cup Winner

Two weeks ago saw Ty Gibbs, my perennial dark horse pick, finally break through with a shocking Cup series win, his first-ever.

Then we got back to normal with Tyler Reddick winning last week.

Who will be the NEXT Cup driver to post their first-ever Cup series win?  Well, lets take a look:


The Most Likely: Connor Zilisch—even though it’s a down year for Trackhouse, The Z-man’s shown his mettle on road courses already.  And its not like he has any pressure in the Rookie of the Year battle.


The Popular Option: Carson Hocevar—people have been saying everything from Hocevar being the next race winner to having him taking over the 48.  But while a win wouldn’t be all THAT surprising, the 48 seems to be earmarked for Corey Day and/or, y’know, Alex Bowman.


The Drafting Track Trio: Noah Gragson, Todd Gilliland, or Zane Smith—but hey, isn’t Nascar rigging races for the lawsuit winners?


The “He 'Only' Has an Exhibition Race Win”: Ryan Preece—while I still don’t know how “good” of a Cup driver Preece is (he’s never really run for a top-flight team), I can see him being pushed to a drafting track win by Keselowski (as long as his car doesn’t take flight again).


The Wild Card: John Hunter Nemechek—Legacy isn’t exactly a great team, or even a good team.  But with a postseason berth almost completely out of the question, I can totally see them making some wild strategy calls late in a race for The Man With Three Names.


The “Y’all Better Do It Quick”: Riley Herbst—Corey Heim is all but a lock for the 35 car next year, especially with Rockstar becoming a sponsor of 23XI.  So unless the Monster money can work miracles at Legacy MC, Riley needs to get it done this year somehow.


The REALLY Long Shot: Ty Dillon—500 races in the three national touring series and four wins.  Yeah, we might need a random rainstorm for this to happen.


The “No”: Cody Ware—yeah, I just don’t see it happening.



www.spaderacing.com updated four times weekly


www.facebook.com/spaderacing


www.twitter.com/spaderacing


Visit the store https://www.cafepress.com/spaderacing


Buy the book 100 Stock Car Racing What Ifs Unauthorized


Does this track have lights?


A MOXOC Media production

www.moxoc.com

Race Picks Talladega: Spade Racing vs. AI

Join me as I test my wits against various AI programs in picking the 2026 Cup races.  Once they’ve made their picks, I’ll make my normal Favorite, Next Favorite, and Dark Horse picks (in addition to my regular O’Reilly & Truck Series picks).  At the end of the year we’ll see who knows more—me, or a soulless machine gobbling up water and electricity.


Meta/Facebook AI (1 win) sez: “Nobody can guarantee a winner at Talladega — it’s a superspeedway where drafting packs and last-lap chaos decide it — but here’s who the oddsmakers and experts are circling:

Ryan Blaney: Team Penske is stacked at superspeedways. Blaney has 3 career Talladega wins and since the Next Gen car arrived in 2022 he’s got the most top-3s and leads the most laps behind only Logano. He also won Daytona in August.”


Truck Series (1 win) off


O’Reilly Series (1 win) Ag-Pro 300 Saturday 4pm ET on CW: RYAN SIEG—if its gonna happen anywhere, it’ll be here.


Cup Series Jack Link’s 500 Sunday 3pm on Fox  FAVORITE (1 win): BRAD KESELOWSKI—it just might be…  NEXT FAVORITE: ERIK JONES—I think it is…  DARK HORSE (1 win): MICHAEL MCDOWELL—it is!  An all-dark horse picks weekend.


www.spaderacing.com updated four times weekly


www.facebook.com/spaderacing


www.twitter.com/spaderacing


Visit the store https://www.cafepress.com/spaderacing


Buy the book 100 Stock Car Racing What Ifs Unauthorized


Does this track have lights?


A MOXOC Media production

www.moxoc.com

Spade Racing Opens 2 Blaster Boxes of 2025 Panini Prizm Cards—Pack 8 of 12


Rather than a “hobby box”, I decided to go with the more economical choice of two “Blaster Boxes” for the 2025 Panini Prizm cards (although they were bought in January 2026.  With six packs of five cards each in each box, that’s twelve packs to open!


Pack 8: Underbird, nobody’s heard, and a quick word


First Look: Plenty of words have been used to describe Alan Kulwicki: Underdog.  Independent.  Resourceful.  Standoffish.  Winner.  Hard-headed.  Entrepreneur.  Genius.  Champion.  But until today, never has ANYONE called him “Groovy”.


To the Back: I don’t know if its a sign of aging or developing something resembling a social life, but I honestly had no idea who Luke Fenhaus was until I read this card.


Say What: “Want a word?  Ok, here’s one—‘gator’”.


Final Rating: 6 sets of tires out of 10


www.spaderacing.com updated four times weekly


www.facebook.com/spaderacing


www.twitter.com/spaderacing


Visit the store https://www.cafepress.com/spaderacing


Buy the book 100 Stock Car Racing What Ifs Unauthorized


Does this track have lights?


A MOXOC Media production

www.moxoc.com