PART 2: THE DRIVERS
If you had to pick one word to describe the upcoming Nascar Cup season, that word would probably be “Transitional”, mostly because “Screwingoverdover” isn’t a real word. With more changes in drivers, teams, and sponsors than in recent memory, here’s Spade Racing’s 2020 preview, recapping what’s new and what to expect:
Special thanks to the resurgent Jayski for its immeasurable help in determining who’s gone where.
DRIVERS LISTED IN ORDER OF PREDICTED REGULAR-SEASON FINISH. FULL-TIME DRIVERS ONLY. DRIVER (car #—primary sponsors) Ford Toyota Chevrolet
THE CHAMPIONSHIP CONTENDERS—these drivers will be everyone’s favorites going into the Playoffs.
1. Kyle Busch (18—M&M’s/Interstate): the more things change, the more they stay the same. No, I’m not talking about Rowdy’s surprising consistency—I’m talking about him irritating me by contradicting my whole concept. Look for The Candyman to have multiple wins and a healthy points lead early on. CHANGES FOR 2020—none.
2. Brad Keselowski (2—Discount Tire/Alliance): its about time BKes stepped back into the championship fray—2020 is as good a time as any. And if he doesn’t at least he can fool Austin Cindric into thinking he has a shot at this ride in 2021. CHANGES FOR 2020—new crew chief.
3. Denny Hamlin (11—FedEx/SportClips): the time is now—the proverbial window of opportunity could be closing for Denny to win that elusive Cup championship. And if it closes any further, he won’t be able to enter it thanks to his bad back. CHANGES FOR 2020—none.
4. Kevin Harvick (4—Jimmy Johns/Busch): last year it was Kevin vs. The Toyotas. Expect Harvick to have a bit more in-house competition this year, but keep putting up as many wins as Buschhhhh has H’s in their commercials. CHANGES FOR 2020—none.
A WIN OR TWO—drivers who aren’t exactly lighting the world on fire, but could do so if they get on a roll late in the season.
6. Martin Truex Jr. (19—Bass Pro Shops/Auto-Owners): in theory it should take a while to pick up where Martin and former crew chief Cole Pearn left off. Hopefully it doesn’t require relocating the team to Colorado. CHANGES FOR 2020—new crew chief.
7. Ryan Blaney (12—Menards/etc.): look for Ryan to continue to make incremental growth. While he might seem a step behind “the elite” that’s partially because he has two championship teammates—I mean, if Stuart Kirby were his teammate, he’d be thought of as a generational talent. CHANGES FOR 2020—new crew chief, Advance Auto Parts joins as a sponsor.
8. Kyle Larson (42—Credit One/McDonalds): the highest Chevy on this list, but that’s a compliment—last year you’d be hard-pressed to find a Bowtie anywhere NEAR the front. Could Kyle have a bit of motivation, say from a possible future Ally? CHANGES FOR 2020—Advent Health joins as a sponsor.
9. Chase Elliott (9—Napa/Hooters): an improving Chevrolet should only help the current leader of the Hendrick Motorsports team. To use his father as an example, he seems to be at Junior Johnson 11 car level of performance. CHANGES FOR 2020—none.
10. Erik Jones (20—DeWalt/SportClips): time to see how Jones responds to the internal pressure of having a bonafide talent in Cup waiting to take your ride. I’m thinking he reacts quite well, thank you. CHANGES FOR 2020—none.
CONTENDING FOR WINS—these are the kinds of drivers who regularly finish in the top-15, and aren’t exactly surprising if you see them in victory lane.
11. Aric Almirola (10—Smithfield): the quiet contender (well, compared to his teammates) could be the kind of driver to win a single race, then “point” his way deep into the playoffs. CHANGES FOR 2020—new crew chief.
12. Kurt Busch (1—Monster Energy): kinda odd to think of a guy who debuted in 2000 as an “elder statesman”, but here we are. CHANGES FOR 2020—increased sponsorship from Monster.
13. (R) Christopher Bell (95—Rheem/Procore): on the one hand there’ll be plenty of pressure on Bell to win in his rookie year, what with increased Gibbs backing of his team and his Xfinity Series performance. On the other hand, he seems to have the talent to back it up. CHANGES FOR 2020—rookie, team is now essentially a JGR satellite, Rheem joins as a primary sponsor.
14. Jimmie Johnson (48—Ally): the final year for Jimmie Johnson in Cup, so enjoy it while you can. Well, unless a Hendrick driver gets injured in 2021 and they need a substitute. CHANGES FOR 2020—final year in Cup.
15. Clint Bowyer (14—Haas/Rush): the pressure will continue to be on Clint to perform at the level of teammates Harvick and Almirola. On the plus side, no one seems to be in the pipeline to take his ride, so back off, Chase Briscoe. CHANGES FOR 2020—new crew chief.
THE MID-PACK MARAUDERS—expect these drivers to either outperform bad equipment or underperform good equipment. Could compete for a win if the situation is just right.
17. Alex Bowman (88—ChevyGoods/Valvoline): winner of the “ooh, so close” award for barely missing out on the Playoffs, it’ll continue to be an uphill battle for Bowman to make a splash. CHANGES FOR 2020—Nationwide has left the team.
18. (R) Cole Custer (41—Haas): his own history has shown that Cole is a steady climber when he gets into a new series. Expect to see a year of “building the notebook”, followed by a year of “building the notebook” for the new car. CHANGES FOR 2020—rookie, crew chief moving up to Cup, status of additional sponsorship (if any) unknown at this time.
19. Matt DiBenedetto (21—Menards/Motorcraft): its put up or shut up time for Matty D as he has a ride in top-flight equipment. For better or worse it might take a year to adjust. CHANGES FOR 2020—new driver, replacing Paul Menard who retired.
20. William Byron (24—Axalta/Liberty): while people may have been hoping that William would be the next Kasey Kahne, instead its looking like he might turn out to be the next David Stremme. CHANGES FOR 2020—none.
21. Austin Dillon (3—Dow/Bass Pro Shops): the highest ranking for an RCR or RCR-affiliated driver. Here’s hoping the team has finally “bottomed out” and can start rebuilding. CHANGES FOR 2020—new crew chief, unknown status of other sponsors.
22. (R) Tyler Reddick (8—Caterpillar): while Reddick comes in with a proven track record, unfortunately he’s not exactly coming up to a top-flight team. Maybe give him a year to see what he can do. CHANGES FOR 2020—new driver, new crew chief, additional sponsorship details unknown at this time.
23. Chris Buescher (17—Fastenal/FifthThirdBank): While RFR is a definite upgrade from JTG-D for Buescher, its not MUCH of an upgrade. Then again, going from Chevy to Ford might be good enough for a few places each week. CHANGES FOR 2020—new driver, new crew chief, some sponsorship info not confirmed.
THE LONGSHOTS—it’ll take a superspeedway and/or a fuel mileage gamble for these drivers to win a race—or even get a top five finish.
24. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (47—Kroger): Stenhouse will likely be a man on a mission to prove Roush management wrong. But will he have a car capable to propel him out of the mid-pack? CHANGES FOR 2020—new driver, new crew chief.
25. Ryan Preece (37—ClickList/Bush’s): Preece hasn’t exactly lit the world on fire, and unfortunately there’s not much to say this year will be any different. CHANGES FOR 2020—new car number.
26. Bubba Wallace (43—WorldWide Technology/Air Force): Bubba has shown he can contend when he has a decent car, but it’ll likely take the stars aligning for that to happen in 2020. CHANGES FOR 2020—sponsorship uncertain, new crew chief.
27. Ty Dillon (13—Geico/Twisted Tea): is it the driver or the team? Ty seems happy driving for Germain, so we might not know for years, if ever. CHANGES FOR 2020—none.
28. (R) John Hunter Nemechek (38—SpeedyCash/CITGARD): JHN managed to escape an Xfinity team shutting down and landed in a Cup car. Unfortunately its a team that tends to run back-of-the-pack. CHANGES FOR 2020—new driver (replaced David Ragan, who retired), additional sponsorship not yet confirmed.
29. Michael McDowell (34—Love's): McDowell held onto his ride through Front Row’s downsizing, maintaining his position as a stalwart of the underfunded. CHANGES FOR 2020—unknown sponsorship situation.
30. Corey Lajoie (32—Keenparts/Schluter): better equipment could mean better results for this small but scrappy team. CHANGES FOR 2020—new crew chief, team has aligned with SHR.
31. Daniel Suarez (96—CommScope/Coca-Cola): out of a ride at SHR, Suarez has signed with Gaunt Bros. for what is expected to be a full-season run. CHANGES FOR 2020—team going full-time with a new driver. (NOTE: CommScope is the parent company of Arris)
AND THE REST—sadly these teams are just filling out the field.
32. (R) Quin Houff (00—StarCom): while its nice to see this team slowly improve, we’d all like to see them contend for top-20s sometime THIS decade. CHANGES FOR 2020—new driver, sponsorship and crew chief TBA.
33. Timmy Hill (66—RoofClaim): MBM plans to run the full season with Timmy in a Toyota, and that’s literally about all the info available on them. CHANGES FOR 2020—virtually everything else is unknown at this time.
34. ???, Ross Chastain (77—???/AdventHealth): Premium Motorsports will likely run a few different drivers in 2020. Ross will run at least two races in this car in partnership with Ganassi with AdventHealth sponsorship. CHANGES FOR 2020—other than two races for Ross, nothing’s been announced.
35. Brennan Poole (15—Spartan Mosquito): Poole is in for the full season at Premium with Spartan sponsoring about half the year. CHANGES FOR 2020—new driver, additional sponsorship TBD.
36, 37 & 38. Joey Gase, ???, ??? (51, 52, 53—???): Rick Ware Racing returns with three full-time rides. Joey Gase has been confirmed for one of them. JJ Yeley is expected to be involved. CHANGES FOR 2020—who knows, who cares?