For the first time in years there was little-to-no change in the Cup Series lineup in the offseason, as the “Silly Season” was as "silly" as a Matt Kenseth post-race interview. Now granted, there was LOTS of drama elsewhere in the offseason, but even that led to more stability in the garage. So with teams building on the past and with a more-stable future, what are the odds?
KEY: #. Driver name (Top two sponsors), Car # & Team
#—predicted finish in the regular season standings
Chevrolet, Ford, Toyota
Special thanks to Jayski for most of the sponsor information here, all of which is subject to change
(Charter teams only)
All pictures courtesy Wikipedia
1. William Byron (Axalta, Valvoline), #24 Hendrick Motorsports
ODDS OF… Winning a race—3:2
Winning multiple races—3:1
Jeff Gordon showing up in that puffy vest—1:2
Willy B has developed into a dominant regular season driver, but can he put it together for a real championship run? In the playoffs, no, but in the Chase, yes.
2. Joey Logano (Shell/Pennzoil, Hunt Brothers), #22 Team Penske
ODDS OF… Winning a race—2:1
Winning multiple races—4:1
Irritating Denny Hamlin and/or Chase Elliott—3:2
Joey didn’t exactly light the world on fire last year, and who knows if the 2026 Ford will compete with the 2026 Chevy. Then again, IT’S AN EVEN NUMBERED YEAR!
3. Chase Elliott (NAPA, Unifirst), #9 Hendrick Motorsports
ODDS OF… Winning a race—3:1
Winning multiple races—5:1
Winning Most Popular Driver—1:10
Its time for Chase to prove he can contend for a championship after so many years of coming so cl—oh, wait, that’s right, he already won one.
4. Chase Briscoe (Bass Pro Shops, Columbia Bank), #19 Joe Gibbs Racing
ODDS OF… Winning a race—7:2
Winning multiple races—6:1
Having a good haircut—OFF (good on ya Chase for buzzing it all off!)
Chase came on strong at the end of the 2025 season, so this could be his time to stake his claim amongst such other #19 luminaries as Martin Truex Jr., Carl Edwards, and Loy Allen Jr.
5. Christopher Bell (DeWalt, Rheem), #20 Joe Gibbs Racing
ODDS OF… Winning a race—2:1
Winning multiple races—3:1
Making the Rheem paint scheme not look so bare—20:1
Last year saw C.Bell win three of the first four races, then only once the rest of the season. A nice reminder that sometimes the playoffs/Chase are a GOOD thing.
6. Kyle Larson (HendricksCars, Valvoline), #5 Hendrick Motorsports
ODDS OF… Winning a race—3:2
Winning multiple races—3:1
Following up a win with a DNF—2:1
The defending champion is known as Yung Money and The Elk Grove Ninja, but will he be called “Three Time”? Well, probably not thanks to how strong the top of the Cup field is, but it IS a possibility.
7. Ryan Blaney (Menards, Advance Auto), #12 Team Penske
ODDS OF… Winning a race—4:1
Winning multiple races—6:1
Confusing his various Menards co-sponsors—EVEN
Ryan Blaney is a threat to win almost anywhere and is almost-always a championship contender. He’s Mr. Consistency, just like Mark Martin—except he actually WON a championship.
ODDS OF… Winning a race—4:1
Winning multiple races—7:1
Being the least-dramatic 23XI driver—1:5
TRed had another strong season in 2025 and could be poised to make “the leap” in 2026. Still, it has to be awkward with the whole “invoking the contractual option to leave the team” thing last year.
9. Alex Bowman (Ally, Ally in a different color), #48 Hendrick Motorsports
ODDS OF… Winning a race—6:1
Winning multiple races—10:1
Making you realize “hey, he’s having a good year!” in about August—3:1
Bowman might need a strong year to stave off losing his ride in 2027, but here’s thinking he does, forcing Hendrick Motorsports to…wait another Day *rimshot*.
10. Denny Hamlin (Progressive, Sport Clips), #11 Joe Gibbs Racing
ODDS OF… Winning a race—4:1
Winning multiple races—7:1
Progressive sponsoring virtually all the “other” races on cable—2:1
Look, Denny’s had a trying offseason to put it mildly, and nobody would blame him if he has a slow start to the 2026 season. Just like how nobody would be surprised if Nascar gives his cars an “extra-thorough” inspection every race.
11. Shane van Gisbergen (Red Bull, Safety Culture), #97 Trackhouse Racing
ODDS OF… Winning a race—2:1
Winning multiple races—4:1
Winning an oval race—25:1
SVG is likely to balance out his crummy oval results with 2-4 road course wins again. And we can all wait anxiously to see if he runs a Chad Little throwback this year.
12. Ross Chastain (Busch Light, Moose), #1 Trackhouse Racing
ODDS OF… Winning a race—6:1
Making the Chase—5:1
Getting smashed watermelon residue in his eye—4:1
Can Ross temper his tendency to crash in order to have a better starting position in the Chase? Yes. But WILL he? Well, that’s why we watch, isn’t it?
13. Brad Keselowski (Castrol, BuildSubmarines), #6 RFK Racing
ODDS OF… Winning a race—12:1
Making the Chase—12:1
Doing another cheesy cell phone commercial—2:1
BradK likely needs to put all his eggs in the “gamble to win” basket to make the Chase with some solid performances, although his mastery of fuel mileage makes it a viable strategy. If not, he could wind up as irrelevant as Kyle Busch, ironically.
14. Austin Cindric (Menards, Discount Tire), #2 Team Penske
ODDS OF… Winning a race—12:1
Making the Chase—10:1
Wearing a bow-tie in the announce booth—EVEN
Austin is arguably the “base-line” driver of our time, in that he does just barely enough to contend and nothing more. Who knew we’d have a modern version of mid-90’s Ken Schrader?
15. Bubba Wallace (McDonalds, Columbia Sportswear), #23 23XI Racing
ODDS OF… Winning a race—15:1
Making the Chase—15:1
Crying in a post-race interview—5:2
Just think—if not for Bubba, we’d likely still have Nascar Cup teams under the heel of the France family. Think about it!
16. Connor Zilisch (Red Bull, Wendy’s), #88 Trackhouse Racing
ODDS OF… Winning a race—18:1
Making the Chase—15:1
Having his name misspelled—OFF
Can a rookie make the playoffs? Why yes, even if he doesn’t win a race.
17. Chris Buescher (Fastenal, Fifth Third Bank), #17 RFK Racing
ODDS OF… Winning a race—18:1
Making the Chase—15:1
Fans remembering that amazing run he had a few years back—20:1
Same odds as Connor, much more experience, so why does Buescher miss the Chase? Watch it be something minuscule like a random bad pitstop at Kansas.
18. Josh Berry (Motorcraft, PPG), #21 Wood Brothers Racing
ODDS OF… Winning a race—20:1
Making the Chase—20:1
Running the best throwback scheme at Darlington—5:1
It’s tough to compete as the fourth Penske car—wait, wait, sorry, they’re TOTALLY an independent team.
19. Ryan Preece (Kroger, what Kroger sells), #60 RFK Racing
ODDS OF… Winning a race—25:1
Making the Chase—20:1
Confusing “BodyGuard” with “Right Guard”—12:1
If you want proof of how great the Cup midfield has become, look no further—a team like this would likely have made the playoffs/Chase a few years ago. And no, PLEASE do not expand it even more!
20. Ty Gibbs (Monster, SiriusXM), #54 Joe Gibbs Racing
ODDS OF… Winning a race—30:1
Making the Chase—25:1
US getting HIM—50:1
Not much sponsorship, not much results, and yet he gets to keep his ride. These things happen when you have a legendary grandpa.
21. Michael McDowell (Gainbridge, B’laster), #71 Spire Motorsports
ODDS OF… Winning a race—40:1
Making the Chase—50:1
Winning anywhere that requires decent equipment—100:1
He’s always a threat on road courses and drafting tracks, but until those make up the majority of the schedule he’s still a dark horse. Oh no, please, DON’T add more races at Atlanta!
22. Carson Hocevar (Zeigler Auto, Delaware Life), #77 Spire Motorsports
ODDS OF… Winning a race—60:1
Making the Chase—75:1
Being the one who brings out an ill-timed late race caution—2:1
He’s like our generation’s Todd Bodine, except he isn’t quite as good of a qualifier and has hair.
23. Kyle Busch (Cheddars, Lucas Oil), #8 Richard Childress Racing
ODDS OF… Winning a race—50:1
Making the Chase—60:1
Throwing a post-race tantrum—EVEN
All those years being compared to Richard Petty by Rowdy truthers and he really IS like the King—specifically from 1989-1992.
ODDS OF… Winning a race—60:1
Contending regularly for top-tens—40:1
Being mentioned for contending for top-tens on TV—100:1
Legacy MC seems to be in a perpetual state of (re)building, so Erik is likely stuck in 20th-25th purgatory for another year. Still, it beats running part-time in the lower series for JGR, right?
25. Austin Dillon (Bass Pro Shops, Dow), #3 Richard Childress Racing
ODDS OF… Winning a race—40:1
Contending regularly for top-tens—20:1
Losing this ride—10,000:1
AD seems to do jusssst enough to justify running for a mid-level team so he can avoid nepotism charges. So there’s that, I guess.
26. Daniel Suarez (Freeway Insurance, Nations Guard), #7 Spire Motorsports
ODDS OF… Winning a race—50:1
Contending regularly for top-tens—30:1
Appearing in way more commercials this year—2:1
Freeway has premier partner status now in Cup, as well as race and car sponsorship. But can Suarez justify the expenditure? Hmm, probably not.
27. Zane Smith (Aaron’s, Speedy Cash), #38 Front Row Motorsports
ODDS OF… Winning a race—80:1
Contending regularly for top-tens—100:1
Showing up to the Spire shop at least once by mistake—40:1
Hey, remember Zane Smith? Well, he’s still running Cup—surprise!
28. Riley Herbst (Monster, Terrible’s), #35 23XI Racing
ODDS OF… Winning a race—100:1
Contending regularly for top-tens—75:1
Improving over last year’s “basement-level” performance—5:1
Put Riley in the “nowhere to go but up” department, even though he’ll likely still be the worst of the drivers in top-level equipment. Terrible, indeed.
29. John Hunter Nemechek (Dollar Tree, Pye-Barker), #42 Legacy MC
ODDS OF… Winning a race—150:1
Contending regularly for top-tens—100:1
Listening to people when they complain about Dollar Tree’s price hike—50:1
JHN’s Cup career has been a lot like buying something from Dollar Tree—mildly disappointing, better than nothing, and you’re always worried about a possible recall.
30. Todd Gilliland (Love’s Travel Stops, Ruedebusch), #34 Front Row Motorsports
ODDS OF… Winning a race—100:1
Contending regularly for top-tens—150:1
Answering when people address him as “Gilly”—10,000:1
I was wrong when I foretold doom for Gilliland last year, but to be fair proving ME wrong is like avoiding blowing an engine at Martinsville.
31. Cole Custer (Haas Automation, HaasTooling), #41 Haas Factory Team
ODDS OF… Winning a race—200:1
Contending regularly for top-tens—250:1
Remembering the secret password to get into the F1 shop—10:1
Haas? More like HAHs, am I right? Y’know, because they don’t run that well.
32. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (SunnyD, NOS), #47 Hyak Motorsports
ODDS OF… Winning a race—200:1
Contending regularly for top-tens—400:1
Having a different sponsor five races in a row—3:1
Running for a single-car team in 2026 with no majority-schedule sponsor? Yeah, good luck with that (again).
33. Noah Gragson (Rush Truck Centers, MillerTech), #4 Front Row Motorsports
ODDS OF… Winning a race—300:1
Contending regularly for top-tens—500:1
Regretting leaving JR Motorsports—20:1
Noah’s still here, still running races, and still nowhere near a contender. Oh well, as long as he stays off social media.
34. AJ Allmendinger (Celcius, LeafFilter), #16 Kaulig Racing
ODDS OF… Winning a race—200:1
Contending regularly for top-tens—750:1
Filtering leaves—EVEN
Ironically Dinger’s success has brought more road course specialists into the sport, hurting his primary means of making the playoffs. Acknowledge the irony!
35. Ty Dillon (Grizzly, Sea Best), #10 Kaulig Racing
ODDS OF… Winning a race—500:1
Contending regularly for top-tens—1,000:1
Actually calling his Chevy a Chevy—5,000:1
Ty losing manufacturer support is like ME running out of cologne before going to the club—yeah it doesn’t help, but its the least of our problems.
36. Cody Ware (Jacob Companies, Parts Plus), #51 Rick Ware Racing
ODDS OF… Winning a race—1,000:1
Contending regularly for top-tens—5,000:1
Retaining this ride if his dad didn’t run the team—50,000:1
Yeah, he’s still here.
www.spaderacing.com updated four times weekly
Visit the store https://www.cafepress.com/spaderacing
Buy the book 100 Stock Car Racing What Ifs Unauthorized
A MOXOC Media production