Now more than ever there’s a pretty solid caste system in Nascar—Championship Contenders, Race Win Contenders, and Independents. Who fits in where? Who will be making the 2021 Playoffs? And will there be any races anywhere that Timmy Hill doesn’t compete in? That’s what this preview is for!
Read further to see who will outperform their equipment, who will disappoint, and what team will constantly get lapped every week (hint: rhymes with “Nick Bare”).
CUP SERIES
Drivers listed in predicted order of regular season points finish—teams expected to run the full-time schedule (or capable of doing so) only.
Ranking. Car #—Driver (Team—biggest sponsor/sponsors)
TIER ONE—Championship Contenders
1. 11—Denny Hamlin (Joe Gibbs Racing—FedEx) CHANGES: None. PREDICTION: A bunch of wins and a regular season title, but at this point you gotta figure Denny just wants to skip the regular season and redeem himself in the Playoffs. Well, that and eliminate pit road speeding penalties.
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| Team chart--click to enlarge |
2. 18—Kyle Busch (JGR—M&M’s/Interstate) CHANGES: New crew chief. PREDICTION: The bounce back year of all bounce backs as Kyle Busch earns a new nickname—The Rubber Band Man (copyright 2021 Moxoc Media all rights reserved).
3. 4—Kevin Harvick (Stewart-Haas Racing—Mobil 1/Busch) CHANGES: None. PREDICTION: Harvick has revenge on his mind in 2021 for last season’s disappointing finish. This is shaping up to be a good revenge story, like Taken, and not a bad revenge story, like anything with Charles Bronson.
4. 22—Joey Logano (Team Penske—Shell/Pennzoil) CHANGES: None. PREDICTION: One of the steadiest contenders over the past few years, Joey is the kind of guy broadcasters call “a good little driver”, but I will be respectful and call him “a good driver of average size for his profession”.
5. 5—Kyle Larson (Hendrick Motorsports—???) CHANGES: New driver, new sponsors, new car number (this was the 88 team). PREDICTION: Look for Kyle Larson to give Chase Elliott a run for his money as the top HMS/Chevy driver thanks to a car that’s changed very little. As for sponsorship, be prepared to see lots of HendrickCars.com, Hendrick Chevrolet, and Rick Hendrick’s Lemonade Stand.
6. 2—Brad Keselowski (Penske—Discount Tire) CHANGES: None. PREDICTION: Look for BradK to perform in a contract year. While it should get him a nice extension (or a good deal with another team), hopefully his boss won’t use his grace under pressure as an excuse to give him constant one-year deals.
7. 19—Martin Truex Jr. (JGR—Bass Pro Shops/Auto-Owners) CHANGES: None. PREDICTION: Truex was a little under-the-radar in 2020. Expect a similar 2.5 win regular season in 2021 (the half coming from fuel mileage, a plate track, or taking advantage of a JTG-D car spinning out).
8. 9—Chase Elliott (HMS—NAPA) CHANGES: None. PREDICTION: Chase might not light up the track in the regular season, but he’s money in the playoffs. Well, unless he has two out of three below-average races, because that’s the system we have.
9. 3—Austin Dillon (Richard Childress Racing—Dow) CHANGES: None. PREDICTION: RCR continues its comeback story with some well-timed strategy calls for Austin Dillon. Because last time I checked, a win on pit strategy still counted as a win.
10. 1—Kurt Busch (Chip Ganassi Racing—Monster) CHANGES: None. PREDICTION: Kurt keeps overachieving in what could be his final full season. Kurt Busch is old enough to be retiring—let that sink in for one depressing minute.
11. 12—Ryan Blaney (Penske—the usual gang of sponsors) CHANGES: None. PREDICTION: Yep, its looking like another regular season of Penske, Gibbs, and Kevin Harvick dominance. But this time, Blaney joins in the fun (note: fun not guaranteed your level of glee may vary).
12. 48—Alex Bowman (HMS—Ally) CHANGES: New driver and crew chief. PREDICTION: The steady improvement of HMS paired with a maturing Alex Bowman means he could be a trendy dark horse pick for the Cup Championship. Good for him—better than being known as “that guy who replaced Dale Jr.”, “that guy who replaced Jimmie Johnson”, or “that guy who got splashed by Bubba Wallace”.
TIER TWO—Race Win Contenders
13. 10—Aric Almirola (SHR—Smithfield) CHANGES: None. PREDICTION: SHR has seemed a little bit like “Happy Harvick and The Rest” for the past few years, but if AA doesn’t turn it around (and I think he will), he may find himself forced to fall back on his other skill set—arguing with Brian Scott.
14. 20—Christopher Bell (JGR—Rheem/Stanley) CHANGES: New driver, new crew chief. PREDICTION: Its put up or shut up time for C.Bell, but his career has shown his consistent ability to “put up” when needed. Plus nobody likes a driver who’s always quiet.
15. 41—Cole Custer (SHR—Haas Automation) CHANGES: None. PREDICTION: Could there be a sophomore slump? Yes. Could Cole “build the notebook” and win again? Yes. Could the Haas F1 team avoid finishing in last place? No.
16. 24—William Byron (HMS—Axalta/Liberty U) CHANGES: New crew chief. PREDICTION: Even with Chad Knaus getting promoted expect William Byron to “point” his way into the playoffs, although it’ll be interesting to see if Chad tells any of his engineers that “if we win, I’m gonna need you to wreck your laptop”.
17. 21—Matt DiBenedetto (Penske—Menards/Motorcraft) CHANGES: Austin Cindric to get this ride in 2022. PREDICTION: You can see it now—post-race of the last regular season race. Matty D has missed the playoffs by a single point. He’s tearing up, openly questioning what the future holds for him. …and he probably winds up at Front Row or something.
18. 6—Ryan Newman (Roush Fenway Racing—Oscar Mayer/Wyndam) CHANGES: None. PREDICTION: Let’s be honest—Newman could blow an engine in the Duels, get caught speeding on pit road in the 500, and come home the last car running and it would STILL be preferable to how the opening of his 2020 went.
19. 42—Ross Chastain (Ganassi—Credit One) CHANGES: New driver. PREDICTION: Chastain’s like he’s a rookie. But he’s really not. Yet, a tough year awaits him. …Garth, that was a haiku!
20. 14—Chase Briscoe (R) (SHR—High Point/Haas Automation) CHANGES: New driver, new lead sponsor. PREDICTION: Chase is all but guaranteed the 2021 Cup Rookie of the Year award, putting him in such rarified air as Johnny Benson and Stephen Leicht. So there’s that.
21. 17—Chris Buescher (RHR—Fastenal/FifthThird) CHANGES: None. Is it the driver or the car? Its hard to tell, but unless he wins a plate race, he’ll likely miss the playoffs by a lot. What’s that? Oh, fine—TAPERED SPACER RACE.
22. 8—Tyler Reddick (RCR—Caterpillar) CHANGES: None. PREDICTION: If RCR can’t find a way to run two Cup teams consistency, Reddick will likely be the odd-man out. This is referred to as “being Skinnered”.
23. 23—Bubba Wallace (23XI—Doordash/Dr Pepper) CHANGES: Completely new team. PREDICTION: Building a team from the ground up is a difficult task, so 2021 will likely be a year of sussing out who can put up with outsized pressure, constant scrutiny, and having to eat Domino’s on every single late night.
24. 47—Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (JTG-Daugherty—Kroger/Clicklist) CHANGES: None. PREDICTION: Being this generation’s Todd Bodine isn’t much to write home about. Then again, most people don’t write home anymore.
TIER THREE—Independents
25. 43—Erik Jones (RPM—CashApp/USAF) CHANGES: New driver, new sponsorship. PREDICTION: Some Richard Petty fans are happy that the team is going the “safe route” with a proven, non-controversial driver. To that end the team will likely improve somewhat from 2020, but nobody else will care.
26. 34—Michael McDowell (Front Row—Love’s) CHANGES: None. PREDICTION: 2020 was a step-up for the longtime small-time operation. But no matter what happens this year, they can always remember one thing—they have the series’ tallest driver.
27. 38—Dale Allen (Front Row—Fox Point/Christina’s Brandy) CHANGES: New driver and sponsors. PREDICTION: John Hunter Nemechek gets dislodged for an Xfinity Series driver with no wins just because he has solid sponsorship? Hard to believe…because I just made all of that up.
27. 38—Anthony Alfredo (R) (Front Row—???, MDS) CHANGES: New driver. PREDICTION: People want to know why a driver with only part-time Xfinity experience is now in a Cup ride. Including me.
28. 99—Daniel Suarez (Trackhouse—???) CHANGES: Completely new team. PREDICTION: Its going to be a tough road ahead for Nascar’s OTHER new team, but there is hope. Hope that they use the theme to Nickelodeon’s Roundhouse for driver intros, but hope nonetheless.
29. 37—Ryan Preece (JTG-D—Kroger/vendor partners) CHANGES: None. PREDICTION: Ryan Preece is looking more and more like the modern version of David Gilliland—and he doesn’t even get a cool M&M’s car out of it.
30. 7—Corey LaJoie (Spire—???) CHANGES: New driver, new team. PREDICTION: By getting in on the (relative) ground floor of a newish team, Corey could be the next Martin Truex Jr. Or he could be the next Ty Dillon.
31. 77—??? (Spire—???) CHANGES: New driver(s). PREDICTION: Who knows what will happen here, but we can be pretty confident that somehow Justin Haley will randomly lead a race at Daytona or Talladega.
32-35. 15, 51, 52, 53 (RWR—???) CHANGES: a-plenty. PREDICTIONS: As usual not much is known about the four Rick Ware Racing entries. And as usual, other than the occasional late-race caution, not much of an impact is expected.
36. 96—??? (Gaunt Bros.—???) CHANGES: new driver, may run part-time. PREDICTIONS: The Gaunt Bros. are a lot like the Wood Bros. That is, if you look at the Wood Bros. about 15 years ago when they were running with Ken Schrader.
37. 78—BJ McLeod (Live Fast—Keen) CHANGES: New team. PREDICTIONS: Not much is known about this team that purchased the GoFas charter will run, but rest assured that their team leader BJ McLeod will has the sport’s slickest hair.
38. 00—Quin Hoff (StarCom—???) CHANGES: New sponsors. PREDICTIONS: Quin’s got nowhere to go but up. Unfortunately even THAT looks like a difficult step to take.
39. 49/66—Timmy Hill (MBM—???) CHANGES: New sponsors. PREDICTIONS: Timmy ran the most races amongst the three national touring series in 2020. There—that’s a thing you know now.