Monday, February 11, 2019

2019 Cup Preview: What are the odds? Part 1: The Playoff Drivers


2019 sees not only Nascar, but all American sports entering a brave new world of legalized betting.  Expect to see a much-bigger focus from Nascar’s media partners on the gambling aspect of the sport, from traditional bets like race winners to stranger prop bets like the number of fans who will wear Cole Whitt merchandise in the grandstands.  Here below are some odds for the 2019 Cup season—teams with known charters listed, major known sponsors in parenthesis.

1. (Regular Season Champion) 18–Kyle Busch (M&Ms, Interstate Batteries)
Odds of winning a race: EVEN
Odds of the Skittles car being the best-looking car all year: 3:2
"But if Bass Pro Shops and Auto-Owners
is still sponsoring him, why did Furniture
Row have to shut down?" --because when
you're a multi-millionaire, you can.

2. 19–Martin Truex Jr. (Bass Pro Shops, Auto-Owners)
Odds of winning a race: 2:1
Odds of broadcasters bringing up his vow of revenge against Joey Logano: OFF (due to unpopular request)

3. 22–Joey Logano (Shell-Pennzoil, AAA)
Odds of winning a race: 3:2
Odds of Martin Truex Jr. actually wrecking him: 100:1

4. 4–Kevin Harvick (Jimmy Johns, Buschhhhh)
Odds of winning a race: EVEN
Odds of Mobil 1 running another “Tiny Kevin” commercial into the ground: EVEN

5. 42–Kyle Larson (Credit One, ???)
Odds of winning a race: 2:1
Odds of DC Solar appearing on the car: 500:1

6. 9–Chase Elliott (Napa, Hooters)
Odds of winning a race: 2:1
Odds of Bill Elliott being shown in the closing laps of that win: 3:2
WARNING--paint scheme may be
uglier than it appears

7. (Comeback Driver of the Year) 48–Jimmie Johnson (Ally)
Odds of winning a race: 10:1
Odds of the current Ally scheme being revised by the end of the season: 2:1

8. 11–Denny Hamlin (FedEx, SportClips)
Odds of winning a race: 8:1
Odds of a rumor spreading that Denny’s getting “bad equipment” so Christopher Bell can get this ride in 2020: 4:1

9. 2–Brad Keselowski (Miller Lite, Discount Tires)
Odds of winning a race: 2:1
Odds of saying something on Twitter that seems profound but is actually pretty dumb: 5:4

Maybe its just me, but I LIKED last year's
red numbers on a blue background
10. (Breakout Driver of the Year) 24–William Byron (Axalta, Liberty U)
Odds of winning a race: 15:1
Odds of former Jeff Gordon fans already thinking of him as a “disappointment”: 3:1

11. 10–Aric Almirola (Smithfield)
Odds of winning a race: 5:1
Odds of being cursed out by Richard Petty fans: 4:1

12. 12—Ryan Blaney (Menards, PPG et al)
Odds of winning a race: 8:1
Odds of outrunning the other Menards-sponsored Cup car: EVEN

13. 14–Clint Bowyer (Rush Truck Stops, Haas)
Odds of winning a race: 10:1
Odds of Tony Stewart being shown atop his pit box: 5:4

14. (Top Non-Winning Driver) 88–Alex Bowman (Nationwide, Axalta)
Odds of winning a race: 20:1
Odds of Alex appearing in a Nationwide commercial: 40:1

15. (“Wait—didn’t he win already?” Award) 1–Kurt Busch (Monster, McDonalds)
Odds of winning a race: 3:1
Odds of actually retiring after the 2019 season: 50:1

16. 20–Erik Jones (DeWalt, Reser’s)
Odds of winning a race: 10:1
Odds of being rumored for the 95 car next year: 4:1


NEXT TIME—The Non-Playoff Drivers