As usual, I’ll be dividing the Xfinity Series into three categories: Championship Contenders, Playoff Contenders, And The Rest. Please note that due to the vast disparity in resources amongst Xfinity Series teams (Cup owned vs. independent, for instance) this is NOT an insult, but rather a way to better judge drivers and teams against their cohorts.
As UNusual, I’ll be posting a “Red Light”—a worst-case scenario, and a “Green Light”—a best case scenario. So considering how volatile this series tends to be, this’ll be good for a laugh in the fall.
NOTE: No part-time teams listed
Drivers are listed in their predicted order of points finish. Anything in italics is assumed but unconfirmed.
#, Team, DRIVER
Chevy, Ford, Toyota, Multiple Manufacturers
*expected to use multiple drivers
Special thanks to Jayski for the info and Wikipedia for the images
GROUP ONE: CHAMPIONSHIP CONTENDERS
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8, JR Motorsports, JOSH BERRY RED LIGHT: Berry regresses, possibly due to being preoccupied with trying to remember all his sponsors. GREEN LIGHT: Berry wins the championship, leading to such lame headlines as “Berry Bursting”, or “Pick This Berry”.
21, Childress, AUSTIN HILL RED LIGHT: Hill somehow doesn’t get adequate sponsorship, leading to Ty Dillon getting some races due to “funding issues” that have Childress Winery on the hood. GREEN LIGHT: Hill wins the championship and winds up in an RCR-aligned Cup car in 2024…well, hopefully not that weird 3F team.
7, JR Motorsports, JUSTIN ALLGAIER RED LIGHT: Jushin “Thunder” Allgaier finally starts to show his age and winds up limping into the Playoffs (figuratively). GREEN LIGHT: Little Gator consistencyizes his way to a championship, and I figure out what word I should have actually used there.
00, Stewart-Haas, COLE CUSTER RED LIGHT: The bad habits he picked up in Cup follow him to the Xfinity Series, such as running 30th and being out-shined by all your teammates. GREEN LIGHT: Custer has a return to form, contending for the championship despite 80% of the team’s sheet metal going towards his teammate’s car.
20, Joe Gibbs, JOHN HUNTER NEMECHEK RED LIGHT: All the shuttling between series finally catches up with JHN and he fails to impress. GREEN LIGHT: All the shuttling between series finally pays off for JHN and he becomes the JGR Xfinity Series stalwart (now that B.Jones is gone).
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9, JR Motorsports, BRANDON JONES RED LIGHT: He adjusts poorly to his new home, but he has sponsorship so he’ll he fine. GREEN LIGHT: He adjusts well to his new home, but misses out of the championship—but he has sponsorship so he’ll be fine.
2, Childress, SHELDON CREED RED LIGHT: Things fail to improve for SCreed, who threatens to wind up in the dustbin of obscure Busch/Nationwide/Xfinity Series drivers with Burney Lamar and Stephen Leicht. GREEN LIGHT: He makes “The Leap” and has an outside shot at the championship come Phoenix.
1, JR Motorsports, SAM MAYER RED LIGHT: See Creed, Shelton. GREEN LIGHT: See Creed, Shelton.
GROUP TWO: PLAYOFF CONTENDERS
16, Kaulig, CHANDLER SMITH RED LIGHT: Its a rough rookie season, but the focus is on making laps and “building a notebook”. GREEN LIGHT: All that stuff is true but it actually works early, making the Playoffs with a mid-season win.
18, Joe Gibbs, SAMMY SMITH RED LIGHT: Michael Annett 2.0. GREEN LIGHT: Smith’s first full season is a success, and he keeps the Gibbs train rolling while being far more likable than Ty Gibbs.
98 Stewart-Haas, RILEY HERBST RED LIGHT: Uh, more of the same? Its hard to get worse when you’re consistently the worst-performing Cup-aligned team. GREEN LIGHT: Incremental improvement leads to a quiet Playoff bid…that quickly ends in multiple spins.
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27 Jordan Anderson Racing, JEB BURTON RED LIGHT: Jeb Burton continues to bounce from one mediocre team to the next, sort of like John Hunter Nemechek. GREEN LIGHT: A string of top-tens allows Jeb to point his way into the Playoffs, and we finally figure out what “Arrowhead” was.
02, 23 Our Motorsports, TBDx2or3 RED LIGHT: Sponsorship issues force a contraction (or “strategic retrenchment”, if you speak PR) and the team slowly fades to the background. GREEN LIGHT: Two of their teams make the Playoffs, and they even contend for a few race wins.
26, Sam Hunt Racing, KAZ GRALA RED LIGHT: The expansion to a two-car team is too much, and SHR is down to a single Kaz-less car by July. GREEN LIGHT: Steady improvement means that Kaz enters the regular season finale with a solid shot to “point” his way in.
31 Jordan Anderson Racing, PARKER RETZLAFF RED LIGHT: Two teams is too much for JAR and Parker is stuck start-and-parking by mid-season. GREEN LIGHT: Parker continues to show promise whilst also getting a TON of press releases.
GROUP THREE: AND THE REST
*19, Joe Gibbs, (Multiple Drivers) RED LIGHT: The “All-Star Car” is anything but, and switches to a part-time schedule by the end of the year. GREEN LIGHT: Cup drivers contend for wins, Ryan Truex and others contend for top-tens.
*10, Kaulig, LANDON CASSILL, JUSTIN HALEY, ??? RED LIGHT: The move to more drivers doesn't help and they're mired in the mid-field. GREEN LIGHT: Landon & Co. make this the preferred Saturday getaway for Chevy Cup drivers, kind of like the old Billy Ballew Truck Series team.
*24, Sam Hunt Racing, CONNOR MOSACK & the gang RED LIGHT: Four national touring series races weren’t enough preparation and Mosack flounders full-time. GREEN LIGHT: While its a rough go of it, he and the team shows flashes of brilliance whilst building towards a much better 2024.
39 RSS Racing, RYAN SIEG RED LIGHT: The Official Underdog of the Nascar Xfinity Series stays just that—under the competition. GREEN LIGHT: One or two long shot race win opportunities and continuing to learn from Jeff Green.
25, AM Racing, BRETT MOFFITT RED LIGHT: The move from Trucks to Xfinity is too much to bear, and the team starts skipping racing. GREEN LIGHT: The experience of Brett Moffitt allows them to contend for a few wins and maybe even get some rain delay interview time.
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4, JD Motorsports, BAYLEY CURREY RED LIGHT: DNF’s a-plenty, people can’t spell his name right. GREEN LIGHT: A few top-tens sprinkled throughout solid finishes, people can’t spell his name right.
51, JCR, JEREMY CLEMENTS RED LIGHT: This single car team continues to be rather anonymous (in a bad way). GREEN LIGHT: Maybe a strategy call puts them in contention for a win, but otherwise they punch well above their weight.
5, 78, 99 BJ McLeod Motorsports, MATT MILLS, ANTHONY ALFREDO, GARRETT SMITHLEY RED LIGHT: All the resources go towards McLeod’s co-ownership of Live Fast and his hair oil supplier. GREEN LIGHT: Slow-but-steady growth has them finishing in the teens in some races and solid sponsorship allows them to invest in the operation.
36, 91, 92 DGM Racing, Alex Labbe, ???, JOSH WILLIAMS RED LIGHT: This small but steady team steadily continues to regress into the back of the pack. GREEN LIGHT: Josh Williams mixes it up a bit with a few front-runners while I continue not to understand Alex Labbe’s pre-race talks (three years of French for WHAT?!?).
MANY OTHER NUMBERS, MANY OTHER TEAMS, MANY OTHER DRIVERS RED LIGHT: Any number of these teams shut down or, worse, start-and-park. GREEN LIGHT: Teams like SS Green Light, Alpha Prime, and Emerling-Gase play David to the Cup-affiliated Goliaths at a few plate tracks.
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